Author： Robert Mao，ArcBlock Founder & CEO
Five-year technology trends#
It is very difficult to plan a 5-year roadmap in an era of rapidly changing technology. In 2017, we also formulated a 5-year development plan. Looking back now, we are fortunate that the direction we planned aligns with the industry's development. However, we can also see that we overestimated the speed of development and adoption of blockchain technology, and underestimated the resistance and acceptance of traditional technological forces towards decentralized applications.
“We always overestimate the changes in the next two years and underestimate the transformations in the next ten years.”
-- Bill Gates
Here is a transition of technological trends that I believe may occur in the next five years, along with the preparations and responses we at ArcBlock have made for them. Perhaps these technological trends will not occur in the exact order we predict, but I have great confidence that they will all eventually be realized. When these trends become a reality, the preparations we have made for them may give us many first-mover advantages.
2024 #
Technology trends: The application of artificial intelligence (AI) will advance rapidly, and large language models (LLM) and AI content generation (AIGC) technologies will transition from model competitions to application competitions. ArcBlock's strategy: AI will be the fundamental capability of the ArcBlock platform. We will introduce tools and components that enable developers to utilize AI, thereby enabling more individuals to create a greater number of applications through AI and enhance the application ecosystem.
From February 2023, we first launched AI Kit, and later we launched Aistro (an AI astrology application), as well as announced AIGNE (AI Apps Engine) at the end of 2023. This shows our actions and foresight in embracing AI. In 2024, we will double our efforts in AI. AIGNE is a powerful weapon that empowers developers with AI and can completely change the current situation of Web3 developers. AIGNE makes it easy to use large language models (LLM) and generative AI (AIGC), and it is completely no-code, allowing anyone to use AI to build complete applications. With this tool, we will turn more people into developers, rather than relying mostly on software engineers as today and in the past.
2025 #
Technology trends: Web3 decentralized social networks will eventually explode in popularity. Decentralized social networks will emerge in a completely new and surprising form, which will astonish many people.
ArcBlock's strategy: To build a series of reusable components and tools for decentralized social networking applications, and explore the future of decentralized social networking through continuous practice. Empower our developers to focus on innovation and create future products standing on our shoulders.
Yes, since 2019, I have always believed that decentralized social networks will rise. By the end of 2020, we even internally initiated many preparations for this, but until now, we have not launched a popular decentralized social service, and throughout the industry, there has not been a successful decentralized social network. We have seen many efforts, such as Mirror, Lens Protocol, Deso, FriendTech, Nostr, etc., but none have been able to breakthrough yet. However, we have completed a lot of component foundations and tools for the arrival of the new generation of social services, such as the NFT Studio series we will launch in 2022, and the quietly released Web3 Kit suite, etc., all of which lay the foundation for the success of the new generation of social products. I believe that a successful new generation of social services will inevitably rise on ArcBlock. It could be the work of our ArcBlock development team or the work of our ecosystem members. Let's wait and see.
2026#
Technology trends: More standards will be formed around DID to establish a fabric of new standards, and different implementations will eventually interoperate with each other in future applications.
ArcBlock's strategy: Continuously delve into the DID protocol and its applications, launching more mature and usable applications that align with ArcBlock's DID, allowing users and the market to truly perceive the value and capabilities of DID. Continue to maintain our industry's leading advantage and become the undisputed leader in DID in the future.
It seems somewhat conservative to consider that the DIDs we have been investing in since 2019 will only explode as a trend in 2026, but the formation of standards is always slow and hard. When we invested in DIDs in 2019, we did not know if this direction would succeed until the core protocol of DIDs became a W3C standard in 2022. However, DIDs are a series of protocols, so there is still a long way to go. ArcBlock has always been proactive in its strategy for DIDs, by introducing our own protocols and mature applications first, allowing users and the market to immediately perceive the value and capabilities of DIDs. We continuously pay attention to the industry and actively participate in standard organizations, absorbing advice from peers and maintaining interoperability with them. Even if DIDs encounter resistance in forming industry standards, it does not affect DIDs becoming the foundation of ArcBlock's technology with excellent usability. ArcBlock is also the first in the industry to fully integrate DIDs with blockchain. ArcBlock's ABT Network is the world's first (possibly one of the few) to directly implement DIDs in native blockchain. Each account in ArcBlock's blockchain is a DID, and the payload of each NFT is based on Verifiable Credentials. Our understanding and use of DIDs are ahead of the industry, and we will continue to maintain this advantage.
2027#
Technology trends: Cloud computing has become a basic service similar to electricity, while integrated and unified Sky Computing is beginning to form standards and industrial scale.
ArcBlock's strategy: Leverage the first-mover advantage of our Blocklet framework to become an important market leader in the future massive market of decentralized cloud computing. By pre-positioning a large number of reusable components and establishing a component and application marketplace, we will become the de facto market leader and set the industry standard when this market trend arrives.
The Blocklet architecture of ArcBlock is a new generation computing system that coincides with the concept of Sky Computing proposed by UC Berkeley's Sky Computing Labs ( https://sky.cs.berkeley.edu ). The Blocklet of ArcBlock is a "cloud on the cloud" architecture because in the future, cloud computing will become a basic service like electricity, and users do not want to be locked in by cloud computing vendors. By adopting a decentralized architecture, Blocklet allows users to avoid being locked in by providers and better manage their own data and assets. Since 2017, we have seen such a vision - decentralized applications require a new generation of decentralized cloud services. We have made a lot of preparations and groundwork for this, and have gradually come to this point. We have reason to believe that when this future arrives, we can also seize the market opportunity.
2028#
Technology trends: Enterprises are fully embracing the new decentralized cloud computing market. The enterprise SaaS market is undergoing fundamental changes, embracing new forms of computing model. Enterprises will have full ownership of their own data and computing, no longer having to either operate their own data centers or place their valuable data and computing resources in isolated services provided by others.
ArcBlock's strategy: We will maintain our first-mover advantage and be the first to provide a series of new technologies and products to meet the ever-changing market demands. Enterprises may be more conservative in accepting blockchain technology and decentralized computing than individuals and consumer products, but once they start embracing it, there will be a very large market space. We just need to continuously improve our entire ArcBlock ecosystem and be ready to embrace this trend at any time.
It can be seen that ArcBlock's architecture fully covers the changing needs of this trend and provides a highly flexible and scalable solution. Its decentralized design allows developers to build and deploy various blockchain applications while seamlessly integrating with existing systems and services. ArcBlock's architecture also adopts open standards and protocols, providing developers with more choices and freedom, making the application scope of blockchain technology more extensive. We will continue to innovate and update in the process of industry development to meet the ever-changing needs.
Embrace the future together.#
Above is my analysis of the possible technological trends that may occur in the next five years, as well as the preparations and measures that ArcBlock has taken in response. This includes strengthening the research and development of artificial intelligence and blockchain technology, providing more secure and efficient solutions. More importantly, we will also increase support for the developer community to promote technological innovation and collaboration. We believe that through these preparations and measures, ArcBlock will continue to maintain its leading position in the next five years and provide users with a better technological experience. If you also believe in this trend, ArcBlock's ecosystem is open to you. We welcome you to join us in embracing the future.